With all of the protests on civil injustices and the league backing the black lives matter movement, it’s left many of us wondering, will Kap finally get back in the NFL?
So, will he get another shot? Let’s dissect a few factors that may determine the answer to this question.
He’s Past The Prime Age
Colin Kaepernick is just a little bit on the other side of the ‘right’ age. He’s 32. So, this also means his window of opportunity is closing. He needs to get into the league now … or next season if he wants to have a legitimate chance for success on the field again. Most QBs play their best football at the age of 28. It’s the year they peak, and after, it’s typically a bit downhill from there. That said, it doesn’t mean a 32 or 35-year-old QB is going to play poorly, just that they were probably a little better at 28.
In Kap’s case, he was 28 during his final season, but he peaked when he was 26. In 2105 he had an injury-riddled year that left his stats wanting, and in 2016, he came back and played 12 games but went 1-10 and passed for just 2,241 yards.
The Talent Factor
There is no doubt that Kap is a talented athlete, but people forget that leading up to his civil rights activism and alleged blackballing from the NFL, he had consecutive not-so-great seasons. So, even though I think the league eventually blackballed him, I don’t believe that was the case when all the trouble started. It’s just an opinion based on observation, but I think that initially, he just wasn’t worth the trouble. Because of his performance in the two previous seasons, he was a risky buy. Then you add in the uncertainties surrounding his socio-political stance, and it becomes even more precarious.
With all that said, he was still probably at least a worthy guy to have as a back-up, and I believe it took the league way too long to get on board with how the bulk of their players feel. It’s something that should have been considered and respected a long time ago. Instead, the issues that Kaepernick was bringing to light on a household level were distorted. Instead of, ‘hey, this is a real problem,’ it turned into, ‘anyone who kneels is unAmerican and hates freedom; hates the military.’ The media did a great job of flipping the script and ignoring the real issues.
But where does a guy like Kaepernick fit in the landscape of the NFL now? The odds at SBR say that he’ll play in 2020 are +275, so it’s a moderate dog number, also the favorite time to sign him at the moment are the Ravens:
- Baltimore Ravens +225
- Seattle Seahawks +275
- Houston Texans +400
- Los Angeles Chargers +450
- Kansas City Chiefs +600
- Jacksonville Jaguars +750
- Minnesota Vikings +800
- Tennessee Titans +1000
- Philadelphia Eagles +1200
Team Needs
The last two seasons were really where Kap could have been put to use. There was a severe lack of QB talent in the 2018 season, and the 2019 season saw a fantastic train wreck of injuries. But what about now? 2020 doesn’t have the same QB needs. There have been a couple of decent QB draft years, so there are many QBs right now, but not many starting jobs. Which means, some starters will be playing second-chair, also taking away back-up jobs.
That said, teams like the Bengals and Panthers are still in need of a capable back-up, in my humble opinion. But, is Kap NFL ready? He may be, but is he more prepared than the handfuls of guys who haven’t missed four years?
The Intangible
Colin Kaepernick is a ‘people’s champion’ right now. He has become a folk hero. Brett Favre recently compared Kap to Pat Tillman, who sacrificed his NFL career to join the Army Rangers after 9/11. It’s opposite ends of the spectrum, but both of these people actively stood up for what they believe.
Farve also brought up a good point. Even though Kap is 32, he hasn’t been getting hit over the last four years, so his body will much younger than a typical 32-year-old QB. But more than anything, it’s a chance for the team that signs him to support social justice truly. If a team were to sign, Kap it would garner millions of new fans — it would probably also lose thousands … but who wants racist fans anyhow? So, will Kap return? We’ll have to wait and see.
