Posts made in January 2019
Lodi—Napa without the crowds
360 Magazine Culture Editor, Tom Wilmer explores Lodi, California’s exemplary wine, cuisine and culture.
Lodi has been chugging along as a major wine and grape producer for more than a Century.
Located in the San Joaquin Valley a hundred miles inland from San Francisco and a five-hour drive from Hollywood, Lodi is a highly recommended weekend wine getaway.
Why? You’ll discover truly world-class family run wineries and businesses with the added allure of a small town innocence where the people are friendly and welcoming.
Lodi has long been legendary for their Zinfandel—producing more than 40 percent of all premium Zin sold in California. But, Lodi does not get the media-buzz like Napa Valley—and in a way that’s a good thing as it offers an opportunity to experience a world-class wine region that has not gone over the top.
Word Class? Yes. In 2015 the prestigious Wine Spectator proclaimed Lodi as the Wine Region of the year.
Lodi was awarded Wine Enthusiast’s coveted “Wine Region of the Year” in 2015, and in September 2018, USA Today’s Readers’ Poll awarded Lodi with second place in the Top 10 Best Wine Regions in America.
Lodi winemakers regularly walk away with double-golds at wine competitions. Mettler Family Vineyards’ winemaker Adam Mettler, was recipient of Wine Spectator’s prestigious 2018 Winemaker of the Year award.
There are also delightful upstarts like Ms. Sue Tipton. She didn’t even think about becoming a winemaker until she was 50 years-old—and when she did, she decided to only craft white wines.
Everyone told her she wouldn’t make a go of it unless she also made reds.
Tifton plowed ahead in spite of the naysayers and it wasn’t long before her Voignier won the “Best in the State of California” at the 2016 California State Fair.
Come for a visit and you will be pleasantly comforted by the absence of bumper-to-bumper traffic—it’s stone cold refreshing—and savor the preponderance of laid back family run wineries.
It’s no accident that Lodi Wine is slated to be the official wine of the 2019 Amgen Tour of California.
Wine is just one of the many cool ingredients that make Lodi such a tempting destination—there’s also a burgeoning culinary scene with, of course, a downtown microbrewery.
At Wine & Roses Inn and Spa—you’ll meet, and hopefully have time for dinner prepared by James Beard award-winning chef—Bradley Ogden, a true California culinary legend and trendsetter.
Chef Ogden came to national attention in the early 1980s at Kansas City’s famed The American Restaurant shortly after graduating from the prestigious Culinary Institute of America.
Ogden served as executive chef at San Francisco’s Campton Place Hotel before opening his first restaurant, The Lark Creek Inn, in 1989.
Over the years, he’s been involved in dozens of legendary California restaurant operations, including One Market in San Francisco, his namesake eatery in Las Vegas at Caesar’s Palace, The Lark Creek Inn, Larkspur, and Root 246 in Solvang.
Ogden recently settled in Lodi, California, where he serves as culinary director at Wine & Rose Resort & Spa’s Town House restaurant.
Listen in to the Journeys of Discovery with Tom Wilmer KCBX/NPR One audio podcast series to hear the stories and tales of the Lodi wine world as told by the locals:
Click here to listen to the Podcast interview at Lucas Winery
Click here for Lodi overview, kayaking, biking, and agricultural history podcast
Click here to listen to Chef Bradley Ogden’s Podcast interview
You are invited to subscribe to the Lowell Thomas Award-winning travel show podcast, Journeys of Discovery with Tom Wilmer, featured on the NPR Podcast Directory, Apple Podcast, the NPR One App & Stitcher.com. Twitter: TomCWilmer. Instagram: Thomas.Wilmer. Member of the National Press Club in Washington D.C.
2019 National Inventors Hall of Fame Inductees
Nineteen innovation pioneers were announced on January 8th as the 2019 Class of the National Inventors Hall of Fame®(NIHF) on the main stage at CES®.
These innovators, whose inventions range from the UNIX operating system to fluoride toothpaste, will be celebrated as the newest Class of Inductees during the NIHF Induction Ceremony. In partnership with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), NIHF will honor these Inductees in Washington, D.C. on May 1-2 at one of the innovation industry’s most highly anticipated events — “The Greatest Celebration of American Innovation.”
“I am honored to be inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame,” said 2019 Inductee Bill Warner, pioneer of digital nonlinear editing for video. “I love how inventions can change the world for the better, and I am thrilled to join this year’s Class.”
THE CLASS OF 2019
• Chieko Asakawa: Web Browser for the Blind and Visually Impaired
Chieko Asakawa invented the Home Page Reader (HPR), the first practical voice browser to provide effective Internet access for blind and visually impaired computer users. Designed to enable users to surf the internet and navigate web pages through a computer’s numeric keypad instead of a mouse, HPR debuted in 1997; by 2003, it was widely used around the world.
• Jeff Kodosky and James Truchard: Virtual Instrumentation – LabVIEW™
Kodosky and Truchard introduced LabVIEW in 1986 as a graphical programming language that enables user-defined testing and measurement and control systems. It grew to be used by engineers, scientists, academics and students around the world.
• Rebecca Richards-Kortum: Medical Devices for Low-Resource Settings
Rebecca Richards-Kortum develops low-cost, high-performance medical technologies for people in places where traditional medical equipment is not an option. She’s led the development of optical technologies to improve early detection of cervical, oral and esophageal cancer; and tools to improve newborn survival in Africa, including the Pumani CPAP system for newborns with breathing problems; BiliSpec for measuring bilirubin levels to detect jaundice; and DoseRight, for accurate dosing of children’s liquid medication.
• Dennis Ritchie (Posthumous) and Ken Thompson: UNIX Operating System
Thompson and Ritchie’s creation of the UNIX operating system and the C programming language were pivotal developments in the progress of computer science. Today, 50 years after its beginnings, UNIX and UNIX-like systems continue to run machinery from supercomputers to smartphones. The UNIX operating system remains the basis of much of the world’s computing infrastructure, and C language — written to simplify the development of UNIX — is one of the most widely used languages today.
• Edmund O. Schweitzer III: Digital Protective Relay
Schweitzer brought the first microprocessor-based digital protective relay to market, revolutionizing the performance of electric power systems with computer-based protection and control equipment, and making a major impact in the electric power utility industry. Schweitzer’s more precise, more reliable digital relay was one-eighth the size, one-tenth the weight and one-third the price of previous mechanical relays.
• David Walt: Microwell Arrays
Walt created microwell arrays that could analyze thousands of genes simultaneously, revolutionizing the field of genetic analysis. His technology accelerated the understanding of numerous human diseases and is now being used in diagnosis. It has also made DNA sequencing more affordable and accessible.
• William J. Warner: Digital Nonlinear Editing System
Bill Warner invented the Avid Media Composer — a digital nonlinear editing system for film and video. Warner’s technology revolutionized film and video post-production by providing editors with faster, more intuitive and more creative techniques than were possible with traditional analog linear methods.
• John Baer, Karl H. Beyer Jr., Frederick Novello and James Sprague: Thiazide Diuretics/Chlorothiazide (Posthumous)
Beyer, Sprague, Baer and Novello were part of the Merck Sharp & Dohme Research Laboratories team that pioneered thiazide diuretics, the first class of drugs to safely and effectively treat hypertension. Today, thiazide diuretics remain a first-line treatment for high blood pressure and related heart problems.
• S. Duncan Black and Alonzo G. Decker: Portable Hand-Held Electric Drill (Posthumous)
Virtually all of today’s electric drills descend from the original portable hand-held drill developed by Black and Decker, whose invention spurred the growth of the modern power tool industry. By 1920, Black & Decker surpassed $1 million in annual sales and soon had offices in eight U.S. cities and a factory in Canada. Today, the company is known as Stanley Black & Decker.
• Andrew Higgins: LCVP (Landing Craft, Vehicle, Personnel); Higgins Boats (Posthumous)
Higgins, a New Orleans-based boat builder and inventor, developed and manufactured landing craft critical to the success of the U.S. military during World War II. The best known was the Landing Craft, Vehicle, Personnel (LCVP), or Higgins Boat, used to land American troops on the beaches of Normandy on D-Day.
• Joseph Lee: Bread Machines (Posthumous)
The son of slaves, Boston-area entrepreneur Joseph Lee was a pioneer in the automation of bread and bread-crumb making during the late 1800s. The self-educated inventor was a successful hotel and restaurant owner who created his machines to allow for greater efficiency in his kitchens, and by 1900 his devices were used by many of America’s leading hotels and were a fixture in hundreds of the country’s leading catering establishments.
• Joseph Muhler and William Nebergall: Stannous Fluoride Toothpaste (Posthumous)
Dentist and biochemist Muhler and inorganic chemist Nebergall developed a cavity-preventing product using stannous fluoride. In 1956, Crest®toothpaste was introduced nationally. Four years later, it became the first toothpaste to be recognized by the American Dental Association as an effective decay-preventing agent.
For full biographies of each Inductee, visit invent.org/honor/inductees/.
THE CELEBRATION
The Class of 2019 will be honored at “The Greatest Celebration of American Innovation,” a two-day event held in our nation’s capital. Danica McKellar — star of the TV show “The Wonder Years,” Hallmark Channel regular, mathematician and author — will serve as master of ceremonies.
• May 1 – Illumination Ceremony at the National Inventors Hall of Fame Museum at the USPTO Headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia, where new Inductees will place illuminated hexagons displaying their names in the Gallery of Icons.™
• May 2 – The 47th Annual National Inventors Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony will be held at the National Building Museum in Washington, D.C., where the new Inductee class will be honored for their contributions to society during an evening including a black-tie dinner, ceremony and after party. To learn more about the event, visit invent.org/honor/inductees/induction-ceremony/.
“The National Inventors Hall of Fame honors the innovation game-changers who have transformed our world,” said NIHF CEO Michael Oister. “Through inventions as diverse as life-saving medicines and web browsers for the visually impaired, these superhero innovators have made significant advances in our daily lives and well-being.”
Safety Score
Autoliv, Inc. (NYSE: ALV and SSE: ALIVsdb), the worldwide leader in automotive safety systems, today introduced Safety Score by Autoliv, a smartphone application with the goal to make people of all ages become safer drivers.
Once downloaded and when active, Safety Score monitors real-time driver behaviors and compares it against Autoliv’s proprietary data algorithms and known causes of accidents and provides the user with a personalized 3-digit safe driver score. The higher the score the more safe-driving behaviors the driver exhibited over an array of data points including turning, acceleration, braking, speed and distractions. The app also collects and compares data on weather, type of roads driven on, time of day and trip duration.
“Today, nearly 1.4 million people die in traffic fatalities every year and that number is expected to increase,” said Cecilia Sunnevång, Ph.D., Autoliv Vice President of Research. “Autoliv has been collecting, studying and acting on accident data for 65 years and we believe the road to saving more lives includes improving driver behavior. Safety Score, when used regularly provides a unique understanding of an individual’s safe-driving patterns and provides a framework for coaching and improving safe-driving habits.”
Christoffer Malm, Autoliv Director of Digital and Mobility, added that having a personalized safety score based on individual driving behavior could also be used by ride-hailing, taxi, limousine and other fleet and professional driving companies to provide an objective picture of a user’s safe-driving habits and provide a platform for evaluating and improving driving behavior. Additionally, a personalized Safety Score based on individual driving behavior could also be used to reduce insurance costs.
“Many usage-based insurance programs collect vehicle data and score based on the performance of a vehicle, which often has multiple drivers, so driving behavior reported back to the insurance company isn’t personalized,” he said. “Safety Score assesses individual driving behavior – regardless of the vehicle driven – and provides a personalized score that could be used to determine an individual’s safe-driving behavior. The individual could then share this information with the insurance company to reduce costs.”
HELLCAT REDEYE
By Anthony Sovinsky × Vaughn Lowery
The 2019 Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat Redeye is powerful in every sense of the word. Its first introduction in 2015 known simply as ‘The Hellcat’ instantly gained notoriety amongst car enthusiasts as being the most powerful muscle in the world. Magnificently and aggressively styled it came off the lot ready to rock with 707hp and 650 lb-ft torque powered by a 6.2L supercharged V8 that roared like the king of the jungle. Having that many pony’s is an acquired taste. Even with the base model challengers being as popular as they are, seeing a Hellcat on the road is camera worthy.
Then Dodge introduced the Challenger SRT Demon in 2018 that produced a whomping 840hp while somehow still being street legal. However, the ‘Demon’ was a limited release with just 3300 units in the US and currently all accounted for. Good luck seeing this monstrosity on the road.
Now comes the 2019 Dodge Challenger Redeye. It’s a Hellcat that has been possessed by the Demon resulting in its name. It inherited many components from the Demon’s build; most notably, a variety of drivetrain components that help it withstand its power output. With the only difference being less airflow, it’s able to crank out 797hp and 707 lb-ft of torque. Distinguishing the Redeye is it’s fully functional dual snorkel hood, widebody kit, red paint job and air inlets on both headlights. Its firm stance is made complete by 305’s on all four corners. This also allows more ground contact for the vehicle to transfer its power into forward motion.
The interior features two race inspired bucket seats up front with the ‘Hellcat’ badge stitched into the back rest. This provides added curb appeal as the logos can be seen through the windshield by pedestrians. In addition, the backseats have been deleted for further weight savings; most of the weight savings coming from not being able to have back seat passengers.
Furthermore, the infotainment system is similar to models prior. Capabilities include apple car play, navigation, drive modes and performance tuning to name a few.
The Hellcat Redeye is truly a sight to see while delivering a great value per dollar for horsepower. Base price tagged at $72,745 while fully loaded can hike it in to the $80,000 range.
Welterweight World Championship: Pacquiao vs. Broner
Power, speed and a clash of styles will be on display this month when two of boxing’s biggest stars go toe-to-toe for the welterweight world championship. Ending his two-year hiatus from a U.S. boxing ring, boxing’s only eight-division world champion Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao returns to defend his WBA welterweight title against former four-division world champion and must-see attraction Adrien “The Problem” Broner. Broadcast live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, “Pacquiao vs. Broner,” and its co-featured fights, will be shown on big screens across the nation.
Tickets for “Pacquiao vs. Broner” can be purchased online at www.FathomEvents.com or at participating theater box offices now.
The live broadcast of “Pacquiao vs. Broner” presented by Fathom Events and SHOWTIME PPV, is set for Saturday, January 19 beginning at 9:00 p.m. ET / 8:00 p.m. CT / 7:00 p.m. MT / 6:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. AK / 4:00 p.m. HI. Boxing fans throughout the U.S. will be able to enjoy the event in more than 350 select movie theaters through Fathom’s Digital Broadcast Network (DBN). A complete list of theater locations is available on the Fathom Events website (theaters and participants are subject to change).
Pacquiao, 40, is coming off a vintage performance in Malaysia in July where he stopped Argentine slugger and world champion Lucas Matthysse inside seven rounds to regain the welterweight title for a fourth time. Broner, one of the most talented fighters in boxing, is aiming for his second stint as 147-pound champion. If victorious, Broner also will add a career-defining win against a first-ballot Hall of Famer to his already stellar resume.
A three-time Fighter of the Year and the Boxing Writers Association of America’s reigning Fighter of the Decade, Pacquiao (60-7-2, 39 KOs), who hails from Sarangani Province in the Philippines, is the only sitting Congressman and Senator to win a world title. Pacquiao’s boxing resume features victories over at least seven current and future Hall of Famers, including Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, and Juan Manuel Marquez.
Cincinnati’s Broner (33-3-1, 24 KOs) is a former four-division world title holder and one of boxing’s most popular and colorful personalities. The brash and outspoken 29-year-old has faced some of boxing’s best en route to winning titles at 130, 135, 140 and 147 pounds, including Mikey Garcia, Paulie Malignaggi and Shawn Porter. Broner, who will face his 10th world champion in Pacquiao, scored a draw in his last fight in April on SHOWTIME against former two-division world champion Jessie Vargas.
“Boxing fans have been eagerly awaiting Pacquiao’s return to a U.S. boxing ring and we are proud to partner with SHOWTIME PPV, to bring it to local cinemas,” said Ray Nutt, Fathom Events CEO. “Fight fans won’t want to miss this match-up of two of boxing’s biggest stars – live and larger-than-life on the big screen.”
2nd Annual Golf Kitchen Punta Mita
Punta Mita is set to host the second edition of Golf Kitchen Punta Mita event on April 25-28, 2019. Golf Kitchen Magazine and Punta Mita developer DINE co-host this special four-day, three-night event that blends the best of the region’s destination golf and gastronomic experiences with the help of a crew of visiting chefs from esteemed golf clubs in the US and Latin America.
“We are thrilled to collaborate once again with Golf Kitchen Magazine’s Diana DeLucia in creating the 2nd Annual Golf Kitchen Punta Mita Gastronomic Extravaganza,” said Carl Emberson, Director of Marketing and Operations at Punta Mita. “This special event showcases the very best cuisine the Golf Club industry offers in the Americas.”
Punta Mita’s own Executive Chef Pato Pérsico will serve as host chef for Golf Kitchen Punta Mita, leading a welcome dinner at the new Pacifico Beach Club that honors “The Cuisine of Latin America” with dishes created by guest chefs from the Americas. Creative mixologists, live music, and house DJ Omar will keep the energy high all night long.
Talented chefs representing many prestigious golf clubs will team up to create unforgettable brunches, lunches, dinners, and tasting menus throughout the course of the event:
- Pato Pérsico, Executive Chef of Punta Mita and 2019 Event Host, Mexico
- Anthony Giacoponello & Joseph Klages, Sebonack Golf Club, Southampton, New York
- Michael Ruggiero, Glenarbor Golf Club, Bedford, New York
- Tony Villanueva, Edgewood Country Club, River Vale, New Jersey
- Ricky Motta, Garzon Club, Uruguay
- Doug Blair, Cassique at Kiawah Island Club, South Carolina
- Damian Gilchrist, Sankaty Head Golf Club, Nantucket, Massachusetts
- Lalo Palazuelos, Club de Golf Bosque Real, Mexico
- Gastón Yelicich, Cantegrill Country Club, Punte Del Este, Uruguay
- Yasuo Asai, Asai Kaiseki Cuisine, Mexico
- Marcelo Pereyra, Coronel Pringles Restaurant, Argentina
- Jose Carles Fabregas, Downtown Boquerón By Chef Jose Carles, Puerto Rico
Dining takes place in some of Punta Mita’s most beautiful settings including the Four Seasons Resort Punta Mita and St. Regis Punta Mita Resort. Click here for the event’s full culinary agenda.
Golf fanatics will enjoy the event’s two-day Golf Kitchen Cup that plays out over Punta Mita’s two Jack Nicklaus Signature Golf Courses – Bahia and Pacifico. The cup event kicks off with a Four-Hole Chef Cup Shootout where seven guest chefs escape the kitchen to show off their skills on the links. Click here for the event’s full golf agenda. The event wraps at Kupuri Beach Club with a delicious gala featuring a dine-around tasting pool party with a silent and live auction to raise funds for local charities Peace and The Fundación Punta de Mita.
Golf Kitchen Punta Mita offers a selection of packages that include the following options for both golf and culinary events:
Stay Golf Kitchen Package:
- 3-night accommodation at St. Regis Punta Mita Resort
- Participation in the two days of Golf Tournament
- Kitchen Experience: access to all featured culinary events
- Complimentary roundtrip airport transfers
- Cost per golfer is $1,888 USD including taxes and service charges
- Cost per non-golfer is $1,699 USD including taxes and service charges
Play Golf Kitchen Package:
- Participation in two days of Golf Tournament
- Kitchen Experience: access to all featured culinary events
- Cost is $888 USD per person including taxes and service charges
Kitchen Package:
- Participation in the Kitchen Experience including access to all culinary events
- Cost is $588 USD per person including taxes and service charges
For reservations, please contact events@puntamita.com. For more event information, visit golfkitchenpuntamita.com. For more on the event read this article that features the inaugural event in 2018.
Examining Concussions In Youth Sports
A recent article by Time Magazine cited that children who have been diagnosed with depression are more likely to suffer a concussion while playing youth sports. This correlation flips a common belief that athletes of all ages are more likely to experience symptoms of depression during and after suffering the effects of a concussion.
The article is just the latest in a string of new discoveries regarding brain injuries in American sports. Researchers from across the nation are looking at different angles in order to keep American athletes safer in the future. Consider that Philly.com reported that between 1.1 million and 1.9 million children and teens are treated for concussions caused by organized sports.
These numbers don’t tell the whole story as one of the links between depression and concussions is the fact that students who have suffered from depression are more in tune with their bodies. They are more likely to document the injury and speak up about an issue.
Not reporting a concussion can come from a fear of missing a game, school or after work job. It can also come from simply not understanding what is happening to a person’s body. Concussion awareness is just as important as the equipment being used in the prevention and proper medical care after a concussion.
The Concussion Legacy Foundation has determined that at least 1 in 5 sports-related concussions are the result of a head impact with the playing field surface. The turf is the common culprit in all sports.
It’s why GreenPlay is helping athletes at all levels become safer through synthetic turfgrass technology. Turfgrass is the term used to describe engineered natural turf on playing fields. Pristine turfgrass is proven to be the benchmark for safety and performance. Compared to synthetic turf, turfgrass has shown to produce exceptional results under impact tests to access head injuries.
Owner of GreenPlay, Domenic Carapella, explains the impact pristine Turfgrass is making for athletes across the country saying, “Turfgrass helps lessen the harsh blows to the head and body that often happen during sports activities at all levels. When it comes to what we can control, the playing surface should be just as important as the equipment being worn.”
According to Greenplay Organics:
- It’s important to discuss the issue of concussions in American youth sports in order to help drive change for the children of our country.
- Pristine Turfgrass is the benchmark for the safest, high-performance playing surface.
- Turfgrass is firm to run on, provides ideal traction and is resilient under bodily and head impacts.
Jaira Burns Releases “Numb”
Pop artist Jaira Burns (Upscale Music Group/Interscope Records) has just released a brand new song for fans, titled “Numb.” Produced by Thomas Slinger and co-written by Jaira, the mid-tempo track features the singer’s distinct vocals atop a driving pop arrangement. You can listen to “Numb” HERE.
“I love this song for its contrast: The production is so energetic and gives off a party vibe, but the lyrics take on a slightly darker perspective. Sometimes you drink or smoke to temporarily escape reality. This song is for the times when people get faded; not for the reason of having fun, but to feel ‘NUMB’,” says Jaira.
“Numb” marks Jaira’s first single since her contribution to Riot Games’ virtual group K/DA. The quartet debuted their single “POP/STaRS” live during the League of Legends ceremony in Korea last November. The song quickly entered into the top 10 of Billboard’s Pop Digital Song Sales chart and has since amassed a whopping 142M views on Vevo. The project was a fitting end to Jaira’s impressive 2018 where she was named as part of Paper Magazine’s “100 Women Revolutionizing Pop.” With plans to showcase her songwriting abilities, the Pennsylvania native plans to follow up her debut EP, Burn Slow, with new music in 2019.
Will Society Grow Angry Enough to Oust Trump? Watch the Stock Market
By Alan Hall
The political left is busy gathering rationales for impeaching President Trump. The political right is busy crying foul. Both sides may be missing an important indicator of his fate: the stock market.
The U.S. House of Representatives has voted to impeach a president twice in history. In both cases, the stock market was rising, and in both cases, the Senate voted for acquittal.
Figure 1
Figure 1 shows the timing of President Andrew Johnson’s impeachment. On March 2, 1868, the House of Representatives formally submitted eleven articles of impeachment against Johnson. Yet the Senate acquitted Johnson on May 26, 1868, during a stock market rally that added to the 250% increase since October 1857.
Figure 2
Figure 2 shows that a substantial rally in the Dow preceded President Bill Clinton’s impeachment in the House and subsequent acquittal in the Senate. Some of the most dramatic events in the Monica Lewinsky scandal occurred during the largest slide in the Dow during Clinton’s presidency. And despite a $70-million prosecution of perjury and obstruction of justice charges, the Senate ultimately acquitted the president as the Dow, Dow/gold and Dow/PPI rose to important peaks.
Figure 3
Figure 3 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average surrounding President Richard Nixon’s near-impeachment and resignation from office. The Watergate break-in occurred toward the end of a strong 67% rally in the Dow from May 1970-January 1973. That rally preceded Nixon’s landslide re-election. But as the Dow fell, the Watergate investigation ramped up, and Nixon’s fortunes changed. With almost certain impeachment looming, Nixon resigned from office on August 9, 1974.
Why are stocks and presidents’ fates tied so closely together? Socionomic theory posits that society’s mood influences both stock prices and the public’s perceptions of its leaders. Positive social mood makes society feel optimistic, buy stocks and credit leaders for their good feelings. Negative social mood makes society feel pessimistic, sell stocks and blame leaders for their bad feelings.
These tendencies show up in the results of U.S. impeachments and near-impeachments, and they’re also evident in presidential re-election outcomes. My colleagues at the Socionomics Institute demonstrated in a 2012 paper that stock market declines have tended to precede defeats of incumbent U.S. presidents, while stock market advances have tended to precede re-elections of incumbents. In fact, they found that the stock market proved to be a better re-election indicator than inflation, unemployment and GDP growth combined.
Figure 4
So, what does this mean for President Trump? We considered this question in the June 2017 issue of The Socionomist. Figure 4 is a chart from that issue, updated to the present. It depicts the trend of social mood as reflected by the Dow. We left the gray arrows showing our 2017 analysis, and we added red arrows to suggest the possibilities going forward. In July 2017, Congressman Brad Sherman formally introduced an article of impeachment against Trump in the House of Representatives. Yet the impeachment process fizzled as the stock market advanced during 2017. Following the stock market peak on January 26, 2018, however, the tone of the critiques shifted, and even some on the political right became more disapproving of the president.
Since the October 3 stock market peak, criticism of the president has grown more raucous, and the Mueller investigation has implicated more of the president’s inner circle in illegal activities. The Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterms. On November 23, A New York judge allowed a lawsuit against the Trump Foundation to move ahead. A November 26 Gallup poll revealed Trump’s disapproval rating had hit an all-time high. By December 17, the Mueller investigation had issued more than 100 criminal counts and charged 34 people, 10 of whom have been found guilty. That same day, Wired published its list of “All 17 (Known) Trump and Russia Investigations” and said, “it’s increasingly clear that, as 2018 winds down, Donald Trump faces a legal assault unlike anything previously seen by any president.”
On December 18, the Trump Foundation agreed to dissolve, accused by the New York attorney general “of engaging in ‘a shocking pattern of illegality’ that included unlawfully coordinating with Mr. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.” On December 20, Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned, followed closely by diplomat Brett McGurk. Pentagon chief of staff Kevin Sweeney has also resigned. Christmas week, the National Christmas Tree stayed dark due to the government shutdown. Several news organizations ran stories Christmas Eve with versions of The Atlantic’s headline, “President Trump’s Nightmare Before Christmas,” as the stock market plunged. Of course, staunch supporters of the president remain, though it’s worth noting that Nixon had an approval rating among Republicans of approximately 50 percent when he resigned. Yet the number of critics of Trump is rising. According to a December 19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 41% of Americans favor impeachment hearings.
What the Mueller investigation will ultimately reveal remains a big question. But social mood may play a bigger role in Trump’s fate than the facts. For that, watch the stock market closely, our best reflection of the trend of social mood.